Stock Market Analysis: Personal Notes

Mohamed Bennis

6 min readApr 23, 2020

My personal notes about the US and China Stock markets and crypto.

January 20, 2022

ARKK is falling towards QQQ. It’s now a good time to add more ARKK shares.

October 10, 2021

SP500 is finally falling down after breaking the uptrend. Lower lows and lower highs. The maximum retracement is -22%.

August 5, 2021

Should you buy IPOs when many retail investors do? Not if you are looking for short-term gains.

The data from Robinhood suggests that there is a negative correlation between the number of Robinhood users who buy an IPO and the 1-day or 1-week % price change. Seems counter-intuitive, but it is what it is. More data is needed to confirm this trend.

After removing outliers, we get a better fit

Takeaway: if less than 50k Robinhood users are buying an IPO, you should probably buy it too, and make quick gains on the first day of trading.

May 27, 2021

Averaging down my cost
-20% CWEB ($59, $47)

-8% BABA ($234, $214) ->$5.1k
-16% COUR ($45, $38) ->$1.7k
-32% COIN ($375, $274, $242) ->$1k
-22% ARKG ($108, $89, $81) ->$400
-21% ARKK ($149, $120, $111) ->$450
-18% ARKW ($174, $148, $137) ->$550
-13% ARKQ ($95, $84, $81) ->$480
ARKF
-12% DOCU ($250, $204, $197) ->$400

April 26, 2021

For short-term trading, take a look at Wallstreet bets trends here. The dashboards are lit!

October 17, 2020

I will buy Edward Lifesciences (EW). It has been on a strong uptrend for years and it did not go down in the 2008 crisis. Conservative debt, increasing earnings. In 5 years (+240%)

I will buy Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM). It has been on a strong uptrend for years. Blackrock holds a lot of shares in this company. In 5 years (+290%)

I will buy Global Payments (GPN). It has been on a strong uptrend for years. In 5 years (+195%)

I will buy PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio (PGF) for its monthly dividends. it pays $1/share/year. In 5 years (+3%). Looks pretty stable.

I will buy Blackrock (BLK). it just broke a resistance line. In 5 years (+106%).

I will buy SP500 high yield low volatility (SPHD) for its monthly dividends. it pays $1.8/share/year. In 5 years (+3%). Looks pretty stable. yield=5%.

I will buy NASDAQ high yield (PEY) for its monthly dividends. it pays $xx/share/year. In 5 years (+X%). Looks pretty stable. yield=4.6%.

I will buy(FPE) for its monthly dividends. it pays $xx/share/year. In 5 years (+X%). Looks pretty stable. yield=5%.

Very interesting video

I will buy Ericson (ERIC) because it’s a leader in 5G infrastructure. Just broke an important resistance.

I will probably buy Qualcom (QCOM) because it’s a leader in 5G infrastructure. Just broke an important resistance. Is it overpriced right now?

July 23, 2020

Since 2016, most gains and growth in the S&P 500 came from overnight session trading. In the historical chart below, the day session variations are represented in blue, whereas the overnight session variations are represented in orange. Why is this happening since 2016? It looks like the day session growth correlates better with US corporate profits.

Some explanations (but does not explain what happening since 2016)

Source of the comment: The Money GPS YouTube channel on July 18, 2020.

July 15, 2020

Dogecoin couldn’t break through the resistance line (in blue). I expect it to go lower in the upcoming weeks.

July 9, 2020

Dogecoin is skyrocketing because of a TikTok trend, after 3 months of stagnation. This is a perfect example of FOMO and Pump&Dump. Based on DOGEBTC historical spikes, I expect it to go higher.

June 25, 2020

Lower highs and price is above 150 MA resistance.
What I expect: big correction (-10%) in the SPX

Nothing going on for Dogecoin in the past 3 months

Bitcoin is still below the grey resistance/support line. I expect bitcoin to stay under the grey line for a while (months).

April 22, 2020

The 50 daily MA is acting as a resistance. If we break the 50 MA resistance, we will test the 61.8 Fibonacci level, then the 150 MA level. My sentiment is that the stock market will go lower from here.

I consider buying oil tankers stocks, because of the current shortage of oil storage capacity in the US. Short-term hold.

STNG: Scorpio Tankers

TNK: Teekay Tankers

NAT: Nordic American Tankers

Correlation between SP500 et USA National income. SP500 seems very expensive right now. The following two plots give us an idea of where the bottom of the current bear market might be.

The SP500 is likely to plunge 47% from peak to bottom, reaching 1800 points. In 2000 and 2008, it took 700 and 500 days to reach the bottom. I expect the SP500 to reach the bottom in June 2022.